The NASCAR Cup Series has just seven races left in its regular season. Teams, drivers, and fans have reached the point of the annual cutline scramble, to see who will sport the playoff decals come the round of 16 opener in Darlington.
Currently, eleven drivers are locked into the playoffs, with just five spots left up for grabs. We’ll look at who is locked in and who needs to capitalize off of each race to earn a spot in the 2023 NASCAR Playoffs.
Currently Locked In:
William Byron (Las Vegas, Phoenix, Darlington, Atlanta: July), Kyle Busch (Auto Club, Talladega, Gateway), Martin Truex Jr (Dover, Sonoma), Ross Chastain (Nashville), Kyle Larson (Richmond, Martinsville), Denny Hamlin (Kansas), Christopher Bell (Bristol Dirt), Ryan Blaney (Charlotte), Joey Logano (Atlanta: March), Tyler Reddick (COTA), Ricky Stenhouse Jr (Daytona).
Barring nothing drastic happening, Kevin Harvick (+126), Brad Keselowski(+100), and Chris Buescher(+102) are positioned to make the postseason cut, currently 12th, 13th, and 14th respectively.
That leaves everyone starting at 15th and below.
Remaining Races:
New Hampshire on Monday, Pocono (July 23rd), Richmond (July 30th), Michigan (August 6th), Indy Road Course (August 13th), Watkins Glen (August 20th), and Daytona (August 26th).
Daniel Suarez: 15th. (+3)
Coming off of a 2022 playoff appearance, Suarez and his #99 Trackhouse team collected a season-best second place finish at Atlanta this past weekend. The seventh- year veteran has six total top-10s, and notably just recorded his second top 5 through 18 races this season.
Inconsistency has been the issue for Suarez and the #99 crew, due to the simple fact that he hasn’t won, and has struggled to string together quality weekends– the last time was three straight top-10’s to start the season.
Tracks of Encouragement:
With an average finish of 18th, the 31-year-old has a strong chance to win his way into the playoffs; with a 2022 top-10 at New Hampshire, a third place finish at Pocono, and scoring a top-5 at Watkins Glen last August.
Tracks of Concern:
The big concern for Suarez in terms of upcoming tracks starts with Richmond. The driver of the #99 hasn’t recorded a top-15 since the spring of 2019 at the Virginia short track.
More of the same can be found within Michigan and the Indy road course in his two starts at both tracks with Trackhouse Racing, by failing to finish inside the top-20. Lastly, the season finale at Daytona, where his best finish was 19th in 2022.
The ceiling is high for the #99 team, and with a second-place finish this past weekend, a simple positive can lead to a string of them, whether he points his way in, or collects a win.
Michael McDowell: 16th. (+3)
In year 16, the Phoenix, Arizona native has pieced together two consecutive top-10s at Chicago and Atlanta, raising his season total to five. Although he has one top-5, McDowell is notorious for performing well across the summer, and throwing his name into contention for the playoffs this time of year.
In 2023, he occupies the final playoff spot on points, but he’ll have to find a way to out run the Toyotas of Bubba Wallace and Ty Gibbs, as a handful of the final races across the summer have been dominated by Team Toyota in recent years.
A plus for the #34 team is that Fox Sports’ Bob Pockrass noted the selling out of sponsorship for the rest of the season. With that positive, the team can solely focus on building cars to contend each week.
Tracks of Encouragement:
McDowell in 2022 finished sixth at Pocono, along with a sixth place finish in the 2023 spring race at Richmond. In addition, McDowell collected an eight place finish in what was a stellar weekend for Front Row Motorsports at the Indianapolis Road Course in 2022. A change made from last year to this year’s schedule plays into favor, with Watkins Glen, where he finished sixth, and should be upfront throughout the race.
Despite not finishing a summer race at Daytona in a few years, McDowell has recently gained notoriety for his success at the famed Florida track, notably winning his only career race in the 2021 Daytona 500.
Tracks of Concern:
His best finish at New Hampshire was 17th in July of 2019 in his first year with Front Row Motorsports. McDowell also has only one top-20 in 2021 at Michigan across eight starts with Front Row.
McDowell has the talent, and the savvy veteran tools in order to clinch his second playoff appearance in three years. The only question mark will be a matter of staying up front throughout each race.
Bubba Wallace: 17th. -3
In his third year with 23XI Racing, Wallace showed speed and promise in the first half of the 2023 season, posting 4 top-5s, 5 top-10s, leading 58 laps, and having a career-best average finish of 18th.
The issue for Wallace has been inconsistency, such as digging himself a hole early on in recent years, which forces him to climb his way into a must-win situation at Daytona the last few seasons.
This time around, the 29-year-old can make the cutline for the first time in his career, having favorable tracks ahead.
Tracks of Encouragement:
Wallace has two Top-10s in the last two years at Pocono, and recorded a top-5 last season at New Hampshire, and Michigan. Wallace also has improved at Richmond, finishing 13th last season during the summer race, which is important due to Toyota’s dominance at the premier short track.
Tracks of Concern:
The only voice of concern will be the remaining road courses of Indianapolis, and Watkins Glen. Despite a top-5 at Indy last year, he can’t be counted on to repeat that performance, seeing as most of the field wrecked out. At Watkins Glen, he hasn’t finished better than 23rd in two starts with 23XI.
Toyota as a whole has improved at road courses in 2023, but Wallace himself has been a liability at road racing out of the Toyota bunch.
If he can stay up front at road courses, Wallace has a chance as a dark horse contender in the round of 16 entering the fall.
A.J. Allmendinger: 18th (-13)
In his return to full-time Cup Series racing, the Kaulig Racing veteran has had a fairly quiet season thus far, with only one top-5 and four top-10s, while only leading seven laps. Experience is key, and 13 points can be made up in just one weekend, as Allmendinger hasn’t finished worse than 17th since the All-Star break, notably collecting three top-10s in the last four races.
While some may view the 41-year-old as a long shot, favorable tracks are ahead for the Los Gatos, California native with road racing in the radar next month.
Tracks of Encouragement:
Whenever road racing pops up on the schedule, Allemdinger is a powerhouse threat for a checkered flag. His only two Cup Series wins have come at the Indy Road Course and Watkins Glen, both tracks featured in the final stretch. Despite not being a huge threat on the plate tracks, Allmendinger ran towards the front late in Atlanta and scored a top-10 in this year’s Daytona 500.
Tracks for Concern:
Allmendinger has struggled at Richmond for the majority of his career, notably not having a top-15 at the short track since April of 2015. Another point of concern is at tracks he hasn’t raced at since 2018; finishing 14th at Pocono with JTG Daugherty Racing, and 17th at Michigan five years ago.
With the next-gen car, things could change, but shaking off the rust is a topic for discussion.
Ty Gibbs: 19th (-26)
The 20-year-old rookie Ty Gibbs has simply impressed in his first full-time Cup Series season. Coming in with high expectations and becoming Kyle Busch’s successor at JGR, Gibbs has recorded 5 top-10s, and has shown potential to maybe steal a win.
Although the results haven’t quite shown earlier in the season, his successes as of late have been noteworthy.
With Xfinity success at majority of the remaining tracks, and going to tracks for the second time starting with Pocono, Gibbs’ chances of making the postseason are as good as anyone from 15th in the standings and below.
Gibbs has two top-10s out of three road courses this season, and has qualified better in his last handful of races, with an average starting position of 15th.
Tracks of Encouragement:
Gibbs won the Michigan Xfinity race in 2022, and last season finished 10th in his third ever Cup start. In addition, at Pocono the 20-year-old finished 16th in his Cup debut, filling in for Kurt Busch, and was runner-up twice in his two Xfinity Series starts at the Tricky Triangle.
Having also run well in Xfinity starting at Richmond, Gibbs led 114 laps, and won the 2022 spring race at the ¾ mile track. Given his road racing success, the 2022 Xfinity Series Champion recorded a 2022 top-10 at Indianapolis, and won the 2021 Xfinity Series race at Watkins Glen. That on top of not finishing worse than 11th in two Xfinity Daytona starts.
Tracks of Concerns: None
The challenge for Gibbs isn’t his talent or equipment. It’s simply his lack of major experience, such as collecting points, knowing when to capitalize on opportunities throughout each race, and controlling the controllables.
In short, no pit road penalties and self-inflicted on-track mistakes. If he does this, the #54 could have a playoff banner come September.
Austin Cindric 20th. (-40)
In what has been a true sophomore slump, Austin Cindric and team haven’t had anything to back up what was a historic rookie season.
After winning the 2022 Daytona 500, the second-year Cup driver has struggled with consistency, such as getting out run weekly by Penske teammates Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano.
Nothing seems to go right for Cindric and crew, but after a solid points day in Atlanta, the team found themselves only four spots outside of the playoffs.
To keep it simple, Cindric will need every point he can get to stay within striking distance of the playoffs. A tipping of the iceberg such as qualifying well and finding a way to collect stage points can help the 23-year-old starting this weekend.
Tracks of Encouragement:
Cindric collected a 13th place finish at New Hampshire in 2022, in what has been a better performance-based track for Team Penske the last decade.
Although he hasn’t run well at Richmond in the spring, Cindric finished 12th in last year’s summer race. Road racing is a strength for Cindric whether he’s in Xfinity or Cup, in two Cup Indianapolis starts, he hasn’t finished worse than 7th, notably picking up a second-place finish in last year’s race. The same success at Indy is noteworthy at Watkins Glen, with a win in two top-3 finishes in Xfinity, and a 13th place finish in his first track start in upstate New York driving a Cup car.
Tracks of Concerns:
Cindric finished 31st in his first Pocono Cup start, which was followed by a wreck at Michigan leading to a 37th place finish. Those races might create a scenario where Cindric may have to win on a road course. Finding a way to salvage top-15s is in Cindric’s best interest across the remaining weeks.
Chase Elliott: 23rd. (-60)
In arguably his worst season since he entered Cup, Elliott has had a season filled with troubles, and controversy– breaking his leg in a snowboarding accident back in March, and earning a one-race suspension after right-hooking Denny Hamlin in May at Charlotte.
Since then, Elliott has been a man on a mission, with three top-5s in his last four races since returning from suspension. A 60-point deficit can be made up in seven races, but the crossroad for Elliott will have to be the fact of having to win by the final week of August. If he doesn’t, he’ll have to outrun everyone on this list, with his biggest week-to-week cutline competitors being Wallace and Gibbs.
Tracks of Encouragement:
At New Hampshire, the 27-year-old has an average finish of 9th, aftering finishing second to Christopher Bell in 2022.
At Pocono last summer, Elliott ran up front, and was in contention all day and finished third, until a post-race inspection fiasco dethroned Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, who finished first and second respectively, and gave Elliott the win.
In his last five starts at Michigan, Elliott has four top-10s at the two-mile oval. Entering the road racing stretch, it is noteworthy that he has the third-most road course wins in Cup Series history, at seven.
At Indianapolis he finished 4th in 2021, and 16th during the multitude of chaos in last year’s race. The biggest ticket to the playoffs for Elliott will have to be at his personal bread and butter track of Watkins Glen. In what could be called his second home track in line to Atlanta Motor Speedway, Elliott hasn’t finished worse than 4th the last four years, notably collecting back-to-back wins in 2018 and ‘19.
Tracks of Concern:
The biggest question mark for Elliott if he makes up most of his deficit will be at Daytona, barring he doesn’t win until then. His last August Daytona race he finished 38th due to a wreck, but the simple fact of staying out of trouble throughout the night is the question, where he’d likely be in a cutline battle.
Despite his impressive road course resume, Elliott hasn’t won on a road course since Road America in 2021 with the Gen-6. He’s come close numerous times, yet just hasn’t capitalized.
In Hendrick equipment, the job of making the postseason this far back is possible. The Dawnsville, Georgia native will need to continue his impressive stretch since the Coca-Cola 600, as his only obstacle could possibly be time until the field the set.
The Cup Series continues the cutline watch in New Hampshire, with on-track activities on Saturday, and the Crayon 301 at 2:30pm ET on USA Network this Sunday.
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The Slow Restart 