The 2023 NASCAR playoffs are here, and so is TheSlowRestart’s ‘23 postseason predictions. As the youngest, I will take the first crack at setting a quality bracket ahead of Darlington.
Round of 16, First Four Out: Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Michael McDowell, Ross Chastain, Brad Keselowski.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
In what has been a career year for Ricky Stenhouse Jr, and JTG Daugherty Racing, I don’t see much noise being made by the #47 team this postseason. In eight Southern 500 starts, Stenhouse Jr.’s best finish came in 17th two years ago. Although he finished 13th in the ‘23 spring race, I don’t believe it will be enough to out run his playoff competitors to leave above the cutline.
The same trend can be found at Kansas with JTG Daugherty, and Stenhouse Jr, by not finishing better than 16th in the Fall race. Things could change, especially with a 12th place finish in the spring race this year, but going into Bristol, it is a different story. Saying that the Bristol night race hasn’t been kind to the #47 team is an understatement. Stenhouse Jr, since joining JTG Daughtery has two DNF’s in his last three races on the Bristol concrete, with a best finish of 20th.
It has been a good run for the #47 team with a Daytona 500 win, but in the postseason the team will need to break what history has told to advance.
Michael McDowell
In a statement season from Front Row Motorsports, McDowell and the #34 team have simply impressed– six top-10s, two top-5s, and an Indy Road Course win. The team has proven it can run up front in certain races with powerhouse organizations, but doing that consistently is the issue. In six Southern 500 starts with Front Row, McDowell has a best finish of sixth in 2022, in his other four starts he has only failed to finish inside the top-20 twice. Meaning, the #34 team is bound to run well on Labor Day weekend. The following week in Kansas is a voice of concern, as although his numbers aren’t bad, the 38-year-old’s best finish with Front Row is 16th in five playoff Kansas starts. In 2022, McDowell finished 11th, but that comes with three other starts that he’s finished 24th of worse in the fall race. In addition, at the bullring Bristol seems to become every year, McDowell has one top-10 in five starts in the night race with Front Row.
McDowell can run up front, but just like Stenhouse Jr, being consistent with these fifteen other teams is key.
Ross Chastain
In a year of regression for Trackhouse Racing, Chastain and the #1 team haven’t had the best luck as of recent. To put it simply, the Trackhouse #1 has been ice cold since a Nashville win, with only one top-10 at Michigan. In 2022 during the Southern 500, the #1 team didn’t have the best race, by finishing 20th. Kansas has been one of Chastain’s better chances at a win, and that doesn’t change in this year’s fall race. He finished seventh with Trackhouse in the ‘22 September race. At Bristol however, is a voice for concern. Chastain may be the one getting used up, during the Bristol night chaos– but he did finish sixth last season.
No matter who you are, unless maybe Hendrick Motorsports, you need momentum heading into the postseason. Chastain and the #1 team simply hasn’t had anything going since late-June. I don’t think that changes before the Round of 16 concludes.
Brad Keselowski
With Darlington being a crafty veteran track, Keselowski and RFK Racing won’t have much trouble in South Carolina. The questions start to pop-up at Kansas, with the intermediate track not being kind to the #6 team since the 39-year-old arrived, not finishing better than 14th in three starts. Bristol is a toss up for Keselowski, with a 13th-place finish during last season as well.
For Brad K, consistency has shown up in the summertime. Now the execution has to come into play as the weather cools down will be the pending answer.
Round of 12, Next Four Out: Bubba Wallace, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney.
Bubba Wallace
For Wallace and 23XI, it has been a career year of four top-5s, and six top-10s. The 29-year-old has two top-10s at Darlington with 23XI in his last two starts, notably finishing 9th in the 2022 Southern 500. He is the defending winner of last year’s fall race in Kansas, and at Bristol he was on his way to a potential top-10, if majority of the Toyota’s didn’t lose power steering at practically the same time. Wallace in Texas is a toss-up, he finished 25th in the Lonestar state in 2022, but at Talladega he almost won the spring race if not for a late block he made at the white flag. In addition, he did technically win a rain-shortened ‘Dega race only two years ago. The only issue for Wallace will be at the Charlotte Roval, he has two top-15s, but you can’t count on him to do it again.
Wallace has the drive, as statistically in 2022 he ran the two-month stretch of his career, by competing in the #45 for the Owner’s Championship. This time running for the driver’s title, 23XI will be up front, but getting over the hill of a cut line road course is the question for Wallace.
Kevin Harvick:
In his final season, Harvick has carried Stewart-Haas Racing on his back, with six top-5s, and 12 top-10s. Like Wallace, Harvick will run well enough to advance to the next round. Since 2014, Harvick only has one finish outside the top-10 at Darlington, which was in 2022 due to mechanical issues. The same can be said at Kansas, and Bristol as happy Harvick will likely strut his way into the next round. Texas hasn’t been kind to the #4 team, as Harvick hasn’t had a top-15 in the Lonestar since 2021. It’s the same story at Talladega with only two top-10s in his last seven fall ‘Dega starts. And for Harvick, the Roval is a toss-up, as Stewart-Haas Racing has been inconsistent at road racing all season long.
In his final season, the 47-year-old could possibly win a race, but I don’t believe that will come before the Round of 8 cut.
Kyle Busch
Richard Childress Racing came onto the scene in the first half of 2023, with wins by the #8 team at Auto Club, Spring Talladega and Gateway. Busch has been stone cold since New Hampshire, with only two-top-10s in the last seven races. With Richard Childress Racing, Busch finished 7th at Darlington, DNF’d at spring Kansas, but is known to be good at Bristol on concrete, despite last year’s Toyota debacle. In five out of his last seven Texas starts, Busch has recorded top-10s. At spring Talladega, he was in the right place at the right time and won. But on road courses, Busch has struggled ever since a second-place finish at Sonoma. He’ll have to find a way to finish well at the ROVAL.
The possibility of Busch to go long, and compete for a championship is possible. I believe his experience, and veteran-will gets him this far, but like Chastain, you need momentum entering the postseason.
Ryan Blaney
In 2023 for Blaney and the #12 team, when they’re good, the team is like lightning in a bottle. When they aren’t, the 29-year-old and company are ice cold. The first round shouldn’t be an issue for Blaney, but Texas is another positive for the #12 team with seven top-10s since 2019. At Talladega, Blaney has finished second twice, in his last two starts. But at the Charlotte ROVAL, anything can happen, as he finished 26th in 2022.
The #12 team has the potential to go far, but you never know what you’ll get on each weekend from them.
Round of 8, Next Four Out: Joey Logano, Chris Buescher, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr.
Joey Logano
After collecting a 2022 championship, the two-time Cup champ has been up and down over the course of the summer. Although he hasn’t won since the spring Atlanta race, Logano and the #22 team always come to play during the postseason. This time around, I don’t see Logano getting far, as a common trend throughout this article has been momentum entering the postseason— that’s something Team Penske has struggled with. Logano is a threat to win at any Las Vegas date on the Cup schedule, but the issue is at Homestead-Miami. In his last three starts in South Florida, Logano hasn’t finished inside the top-15. With that being said, he’ll likely have to run well at Martinsville, which he has in recent years, but anything can happen.
Chris Buescher
It has truly been a career year for Buescher, and RFK Racing. At Las Vegas he has one top-10 since 2020. Down at Homestead-Miami he finished 13th in 2022, and at Martinsville last fall he scored a 14th-place result. The issue for Buescher will be experience this late in the postseason, and I think this is where the momentum and magic runs out for the RFK Racing #17 team.
Kyle Larson
Larson and the #5 team are an interesting operation entering the postseason. The pairing of Cliff Daniels, and Kyle Larson will carry the #5 this far into the Round of 8. Larson is capable of winning anywhere, but the team has been inconsistent since a All-Star race win at North Wilkesboro.
I believe it’s fair to say the #5 team have lost a step, and that comes with failing to make the Championship four two years in a row.
Martin Truex, Jr.
If there was a team who had the hot hand all season long, it would be the #19 team of Joe Gibbs Racing. Truex Jr, has the craft and speed to win another championship for the first time since 2017. This time around, it will come down to one race in my opinion. That race is Martinsville, where he finished 20th in the fall race last season. It will be hard, as I have Truex Jr, up against three of his Toyota teammates, and the best driver/team all season in William Byron, and the #24 team.
It has been a good bounce back for the #19, but I’m not sure it will be enough to enter Phoenix.
Championship Four: Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Christopher Bell.
Christopher Bell: 4th-place
Christopher Bell hasn’t had the greatest summer stretch, with only five top-10s since the Coke 600. But, when we’ve seen performances in desperate times of need, Bell is your guy. The 28-year-old won two make or break cut line races in the ROVAL, and Martinsville, meaning he’s capable of performing when the lights are brightest. He also has two top-10s in his last three races, which we’ve seen how peaking at the right time is essential. The Norman, Oklahoma native has been quiet, but I believe he gets going this fall like he did last season.
Denny Hamlin: 3rd-place
Hamlin has showed potential in a contract year with Joe Gibbs Racing, proving he can win anywhere. The issue for the 18-year veteran has been execution. The #11 team has the momentum to go deep this postseason, with nine top-5 and 12 top-10s in the regular season. The issue is you can’t qualify well on Saturdays, but then fadeaway on Sundays, which is something the #11 team has done at times. What will help Hamlin in the postseason is his experience, especially with wins at nine of the ten tracks this fall.
William Byron: 2nd-place
In a career year for Byron, Willy-B has dominated—five wins, nine top-5s and 13 top-10s. When the #24 team gets on a roll, as documented at points this season, they’re the best team in Cup. I like the #45’s odds throughout the ten week stretch that decides the eventual champion. What Byron has done is special, as they will get this far into the postseason, but I don’t believe the magic continues into Phoenix.
Champion: Tyler Reddick
In his first season with 23XI Racing Reddick has impressed. Although the #45 car wasn’t deserving of some of the results this past summer due to strategy, or bad luck, they are a force to be reckon with this postseason. Reddick has arguably his best tracks lined up in the final round, with a sixth-place finish last fall in Vegas, not finishing worse than fourth, twice at Homestead in his three Cup starts. Then lastly at Martinsville, where a 22nd-place finish doesn’t show the seven stage points collected, on top of qualifying sixth.
The 27-year-old will then head to Phoenix, where he finished third back in March with 23XI Racing. We’ve seen what Tyler Reddick can do when the #45 team gets on a roll, Reddick is due for another one. This will also give Denny Hamlin a owners championship, but not a drivers one.
The Slow Restart 