Well, it’s that time of year again. School’s back in session, college football is kicking off, and the NASCAR Playoffs are upon us. After 26 crazy weeks filled with chaos, surprises, controversy, and so much more, our field of 16 is set.
In no particular order, they are:
Martin Truex, Jr., William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Chris Buescher, Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, Kyle Busch, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., Michael McDowell, Kevin Harvick, Bubba Wallace (first playoff appearance), Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson and Joey Logano.
As noted above, of the 16 drivers, 15 have playoff experience with Bubba Wallace being the only freshman in the field.
Before I get into my predictions, I’m going to analyze this year’s grid.
Firstly, there are a few notable omissions; the big one being 2020 Cup champion Chase Elliott. In what can only be described as the season from hell, Elliott missed seven races due to injuries and suspensions and fell into a points hole that he could not dig himself out of. Joining Elliott is his Hendrick teammate Alex Bowman, who also missed a few races due to an injury.
As for those making the playoffs, RFK has both entries in after missing last year’s field. This is the first time Roush has made the playoffs since 2019 when Ryan Newman made it in on points.
23XI is in for the first time as well with both cars. The team qualified last year, but due to Kurt Busch’s injury, they did not participate.
Trackhouse is back with Ross Chastain, while Front Row Motorsports returns after a one-year absence thanks to Michael McDowell’s Indy win.
JTG Daugherty is back for the first time since the first-ever knockout-style playoff in 2014 behind Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.’s Daytona triumph which locked the Mississippi driver in for the first time since 2017.
Lastly, Kyle Busch makes an appearance seeded fifth with his new team at Richard Childress Racing, a move made last year that brought uncertainty to the table.
Now that we got some notes out of the way let’s break down my predictions for the 2023 NASCAR Playoffs. Going back to my predictions for previous years, I can almost guarantee that this will be largely incorrect, but in the name of fun, we press on.
Round One: Darlington, Kansas, Bristol
The first round of the Playoffs last year was nothing short of hectic, with parts failures, crashes, and ZERO wins by playoff drivers.
This year, I see less of those shenanigans, but still some chaos. The first round is usually spent eliminating the lower drivers in the standings, but every so often we get treated to a wild card elimination. My first four out this go-around are: Michael McDowell, Ryan Blaney, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., and Joey Logano
It’s been a down year all around for Ford, save the RFK team. Blaney and Logano won early on in the season (Charlotte and Atlanta, respectively), and just haven’t shown too much since. McDowell has had some really bright moments, particularly on road courses and drafting tracks, of which there are none in this first round. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. started off his season in the best way possible by winning the Daytona 500 and has shown consistency all season (he would’ve made the playoffs on points regardless of his win). However, given the stiff competition in the field this year, I don’t see the 47 team making a run past round one.
Round Two: Texas, Talladega, Charlotte Roval
The most chaotic and unpredictable round brings us to Texas, which devoured tires and dashed playoff dreams like they were nothing last season. Talladega, which was uncharacteristically tame for a playoff race last season, and the Charlotte Roval.
Next Four Out: Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick
After a walk-off in this very round last year, Christopher Bell is sent packing along with another driver famous for walk-offs, Kevin ‘The Closer’ Harvick, in his final full-time season. Brad Keselowski has had his share of success this season on the ownership side of the field but still has yet to win a race for himself. Denny Hamlin hasn’t made too many friends on track this season, and while he has some wins and points, Karma is going to bite back hard.
Round Three: Las Vegas, Homestead, Martinsville
This round is the make-or-break round in the playoffs. Eight drivers have a shot at four spots in the championship race, and we’ve seen some wild measures in the past. Just last year, Ross Chastain went wide open on the last lap and wall-rode the final turns in Martinsville to advance to the final four in a now-illegal ‘Hail Melon’.
Next Four Out: Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick
23XI’s maiden playoff voyage ends here after a successful run to the round of eight. We know Bubba has a tendency to come alive in the fall time, and with the added momentum of the playoffs, I see a dark horse long run for team 23. His teammate Tyler Reddick is no exception, as 23XI is very team-oriented and the drivers feed off each other’s success.
After lighting the world on fire with the ‘Hail Melon’ last season, Chastain took a step back in terms of performance. He was, to put it lightly, a wrecking ball to start the season. But after some issues at Darlington with Kyle Larson, Trackhouse and Hendrick both had talks with him. He’s mellowed out since then, and I think a deep playoff run is in store for him and Trackhouse, but unfortunately not another trip to the final four.
Kyle Larson, who went out surprisingly early last year, makes it to the round of eight, but 2 wins, 10 top 5’s, and 12 top 10s is an alarming drop especially compared to where he was just two years ago. He’s had speed all season but hasn’t won since April.
FINAL ROUND: Phoenix
Well, my final four of Martin Truex, Jr., William Byron, Kyle Busch, and Chris Buescher are set. All four have had remarkable seasons; Truex and Busch are having incredible rebounds compared to last season, while Buescher and Byron are enjoying breakout successes.
While Byron, who has a series-leading five wins, has been tabbed by many as the title favorite, he’s not my championship pick. Truex, the regular season champion who’s in the midst of a second career resurgence, has a strong case supporting his bid for the title, but I don’t see him hoisting the Bill France trophy either.
Chris Buescher, driving for a revitalized RFK Racing has had a standout season. Three wins in the last five weeks of the season have built him a massive points cushion and sent a wave of momentum and confidence through the veins of the Prosper, Texas native. Signs of life were visible as early as last year when Buescher shocked the world and won at Bristol. This year, I see him making a Cinderella run through the playoffs and landing RFK their first appearance in the Final Four. However, as we saw last year with Ross Chastain, some stories just may be too good to be true, and Buescher will come up just short in Phoenix.
This leaves Kyle Busch as my pick to be the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series champion. In a fashion sort of similar to Kyle Larson in 2021, a star driver in a new team with unknown expectations, I think Kyle Busch will win the title in his first season with RCR. After an incredible tenure at JGR with over 55 wins and two championships, Busch starts off the next chapter in his career with his third title; the first for Childress since Dale Earnhrdt’s last title in 1994.
As stated in the beginning, these are only predictions. Take them lightly as this is simply my imagination having some fun. If you agree or disagree, I’m open to discussions over on Twitter/X. Be sure to check out Justin’s, Jake’s, and Matt’s predictions as well.
Come back in a few weeks to see how right or wrong I am and take a look at our Championship predictions, which will be released before Phoenix.
The Slow Restart 