As the nine race sprint to Phoenix has become official, the 2023 season of the NASCAR Cup Series didn’t fail to present an ample amount of thrill. 15 different winners; a 60-year record shattered of a driver winning in his Cup debut; the first ever street race in Chicago; the revival of North Wilkesboro Speedway; injuries, suspensions, hurt feelings, young stars rising to prominence, debuts of new faces in new places, and year two of the Gen-7 Cup car. With that being said, it all comes down to one 500 kilometer, 312 lap race in Avondale, Arizona, the one-mile short track of Phoenix Raceway.
Four drivers and teams will make an attempt to hoist the Bill France Cup Championship trophy, to declare glory in the desert. 35 races of build up comes down to November 5th, Championship Weekend in NASCAR, as we soon head into the off-season with 2024 looming. Welcome to TheSlowRestart’s 2023 official Cup Series championship predictions. In similar fashion, we’ll go in order like we did for our playoff bracket predictions: Justin, Max, then Matt. With that being said, let’s meet the field.
William Byron: Note- won the 2023 March Phoenix race
As one of the younger stars at the Cup level, William Byron and Hendrick Motorsports have accomplished everything you can think of in 2023, the one thing missing: A Cup championship. Quickly rising as one of the faces of the sport, Byron has accumulated six wins, 14 top-5s, 20 top-10s, 921 laps led, with an average finish of 11th. In the postseason he won at the Round of 12 race at Texas Motor Speedway, since then, Byron has four top-10s in his last five races– only finishing outside in 13th at Martinsville. However, the 25-year-old won the Phoenix spring race after passing teammate Kyle Larson, also fending off Ryan Blaney and Christoper Bell on a late race restart. In addition, he qualified third in the desert during the spring, but also has seven career top-12s in 11 Cup Phoenix starts.
The #24 will be sporting the rainbow Axalta stripes this weekend, as he’ll try to sweep both Phoenix races in ‘23, while continuing to cement his own legacy aboard the #24 in the desert. The Charlotte, North Carolina native makes his first Championship Four appearance, looking to put the cherry on top of a career season in year six at NASCAR’s highest level.
Christopher Bell: Note- finished sixth in March at Phoenix
Continuing the trend of being one of the young stars of the sports, Christopher Bell’s 2023 has been fairly underrated– two wins, 10 top-5s, 19 top-10s, 599 laps led, with an average finish of 12th. One thing about the Norman, Oklahoma native is that he is developing a theme of rising to the top of the field in the fall postseason. The 28-year-old qualified fifth at Phoenix in March, and finished sixth to Byron that same weekend. Now in the present, he is riding a hot hand currently with three straight top-7s in the Round of 8.
Last year he finished third behind Ross Chastain, and 2022 champion Joey Logano. This time in consecutive years, he’s in the same spot at Phoenix to be crowned champion in 2023. Sunday could be his calling for Joe Gibbs Racing, as he’s finished in the top-10 at Phoenix four out of five times since joining J.G.R. back in 2021. Also, the #20 team will be riding with extra weight and motivation this Sunday, since this will mark the one-year anniversary of the tragic passing of co-owner and vice chairman, Coy Gibbs this weekend last November. Now with a do-over of 2022 in ‘23 at Phoenix, the fourth year driver is looking to be on the right side of an emotional Championship Weekend this year, in his trademark Rheem/DeWalt colors.
Ryan Blaney: note- finished second in March at Phoenix
In a career year for Blaney and the #12 team, the leader at Team Penske this season has burst onto the scene with three wins, seven top-5s, 17 top-10s, 560 laps led, and an average finish of 14th through 36 races. The 29-year-old is on the stretch of his career, and in life but also in NASCAR, when you find an inch of success, that can turn into a mile of it. In this case, Blaney has only one finish outside the top-six of 12th at the Charlotte ROVAL, dating back to his Round of 12 Talladega win. In addition, he hasn’t scored worse than fourth at Phoenix since the fall race of 2021, with six total finishes being in the top-10 consecutively since 2020.
To make things even sweeter, he has a chance to obliterate former driver, son of the King Richard Petty; and now NBC Sports Cup analyst, Kyle Petty’s critical bold March sentiments– of saying he’s essentially the 2020’s version of Kasey Kahne, digging into the stigma that Blaney has an inability to perform at a high level on a consistent basis, stumping his potential. Since then, the High Point, North Carolina native has proven Petty and his doubters wrong. He can do so once again, as Team Penske won the 2022 championship with Joey Logano. Now they can do so again, this time with Blaney in year seven, making his first career Championship Four appearance sporting the bright neon Menards scheme in Phoenix.
Kyle Larson: note- finished fourth in March at Phoenix
When they’ve simply been good, Kyle Larson, crew chief Cliff Daniels and the #5 team have been unstoppable at points in 2023. Larson nearly beat his teammate Byron for the Phoenix win in March, but has found success on short-tracks all season with wins at Richmond, Martinsville, and the North Wilkesboro All-Star race. That on top of four total wins, 14 top-5s, 17 top-10s, over 1,000 laps led, with a 14th-place average finish this season.
The desert for Larson is nothing short of success, as he is the 2021 NASCAR Cup Champion two years ago, and is the lone former champ running for another title in 2023, as the eldest at just 31-years-old. In addition, since joining Hendrick Motorsports, in races he’s started and completed at Phoenix, he has four top fives in five starts. The #5 team is at the top of the field when it comes to executing in huge moments, expect the same this weekend. In year ten, experience can take you far in a veteran’s event and track. Looking to repeat what they once did two years ago, the #5 modern staple HendrickCars.com will be on the car.
TSR Picks:
Justin’s Pick: Christopher Bell
Taking the first swing at predictions, this time for the championship round, I’ll take the young gun in Christopher Bell. He wasn’t able to get it done on a devastating day for the NASCAR community, and Joe Gibbs Racing back in 2022. However in ‘23, the tide will turn with speed, craft, and angels riding with the Toyotas, the #54, but especially the #20, to collect team-owner Joe Gibbs’ first Cup title since Kyle Busch in 2019. The #20 has been fast once again this postseason, and when in the same moment for now consecutive years, it will be all about execution on Sunday. I believe he’s your guy, as this will mark the first championship of Bell’s Cup career.
Plus, if it weren’t for a bizarre pit road issue of his jackman Caleb Dirks getting his finger caught between the nut and thread, while putting on the left rear tire in a late race pit stop— dropping Bell an ample amount of spots, he would’ve been in it to potentially catch Logano that day. The #20 has done well qualifying with six poles this season. What the next-gen car has told you at short tracks this year, is that track position is key. Sunday I believe the #20 team puts it all together on Friday and Saturday with practice and qualifying, but most importantly on Sunday. It will be Bell’s day to be crowned 2023 Cup Series champion.
Max’s Pick: Ryan Blaney
Ryan Blaney. After going winless in 2022 points races and being eliminated in the round of eight, Blaney bounced back in 2023 scoring three wins. He won early in the season at Charlotte, then quietly bided his time until the playoffs, where he rattled off two wins at Talladega and the elimination race at Martinsville, the latter of which clinched his spot in the 2023 title race. But what makes Blaney my pick to win this Sunday in the desert is his performance in last year’s race, where he almost became the first non-champion to win the final race since the new knockout-style playoff was introduced. He finished second behind teammate Joey Logano and led late. Many conspiracy theories say Blaney was told by his team or even NASCAR to move over for Logano, but that’s a topic for another day.
In short, Blaney has the speed and the momentum. A championship victory from the third generation star would be one of the most popular championships in recent memory. I’m batting .500 on these title picks so who knows? Maybe I’ve got something cooking. Only time will tell if it’s a world class meal, or if it compares to that of my university’s dining hall.
Matt’s Pick: William Byron
Hi folks. For once, my bracket wasn’t a complete mess from the start of the Cup Playoffs. While only getting two of the final 4 correct (Byron and Larson), most of the rounds had only one or two errors…a new personal best! Anyway, there’s been a lot of conjecture about the “quality” of the 2023 Championship 4 but for my money it’s a good example of where NASCAR is going. We’re right in the middle of a changing of the guard, the same we experienced in the early 2000s. It was difficult making the change from Earnhardt, Jarrett, and Labonte, and it’ll be just as hard making the change from Harvick, Johnson, Stewart, and so on. What most folks claim to hate about 2023 will be much beloved in 10-15 years so the best advice I can give is to simply enjoy these races as they come and pull for your favorite driver(s). The current roster has a great crop of drivers, and the final four on display here are a great example of what the present and future have to offer the world of motorsports. That’s literally all that matters.
For the 2023 Championship, I’m keeping the pick I’ve had all year. William Byron. The only knock against him to this point was his lack of performance during the dog-days, the grind in the summer to fall. I’m not going to bore you with statistical analysis…you can just feel it. William Bryon is finally a Feb-Nov driver and that could make him unstoppable. He made the most of a bad situation at Martinsville, pulled through and now goes to a track he’s already won at this year. It should be a good race, but Byron finally puts the cherry on top of a complete season and hell, with the resources and team he’s got, he could rip off a few more Cups before we know it.
Championship Weekend kicks off for all three national series, starting on Thursday. For Cup: practice begins at 8:05pm ET on Friday, Saturday qualifying is at 4:35pm ET, and race day to crown the 2023 Cup Series champion, is underway at 3:00pm ET on NBC.
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